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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
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Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
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For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
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Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
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Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
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Praise for The Black Swan
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“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)
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“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
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“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
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“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
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“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
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“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
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“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
- Sales Rank: #16861 in Books
- Brand: Hyperion EA
- Model: 1763010
- Published on: 2007-04-17
- Released on: 2007-04-17
- Ingredients: Example Ingredients
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x 1.40" w x 6.40" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 366 pages
Amazon.com Review
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
From Booklist
In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright � American Library Association. All rights reserved
Review
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
�
“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
�
Praise for The Black Swan
�
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)
�
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
�
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
�
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
�
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
�
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
�
“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The Black Swan
By Tom T
My son recommended reading The Black Swan to me. I had no idea what it was about or I likely would not have read a "financial book". I am an artist and tend to avoid this type of reading.
Coincidentally, I had just had a negative experience with a financial adviser and found the timing for this book perfect. The Black Swan is an occurrence that has great impact and is unforeseen. It is often what determines the success or failure of the quality of your financial life. That pretty much describes anything in the area of finances that matter.
The book is interesting, but more importantly funny, and easy to read. It is not your typical "how to" financial book. Just the opposite, it is a why you should stay away from a financial adviser... book. I learned a great deal and really look at the world of finances and the world in general in a different and a more positive way. This is a great book and I highly recommend it.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Black Swans in "The Black Swan"
By Math Enthusiast
There are true pearls in this book. Umberto Eco's "Anti-Library," Yevgenia's story, Algazel's rejection of science, "scalable" jobs and the antechamber of hope (anyone working one of these jobs will relate strongly), are a few examples. The problem is that they are hard to find and come somewhat unexpectedly, i.e., they are black swans. Surely this was unintentional (perhaps with the exception of Yevgenia), or this would have to qualify as one of the most elaborate jokes in the history of literature. I think the real problem is that the author apparently set out to write some kind of "treatise" and felt that the book had to be a weighty 500-page tome, so he had to include a lot of filler. Properly edited, this could have been a delightful 200-page read. Sometimes the author is wrong: for example, he dismisses linear phenomena too casually. It is obvious that nothing is nature is linear, since this would require the response to increase or decrease without bound as the independent variable increases or decreases, which is an impossibility. This is called the "Law of Diminishing Returns." The point is that many or even most phenomena behave linearly over a limited interval of interest. For example, a transistor is a linear device if biased (by means of proper voltage application) to its amplifying region, otherwise it behaves as a switch (as in digital devices). The author is prone sometimes to self-aggrandizing, but this is tempered with dashes of self-deprecating humor, making the reading tolerable. All in all, it's recommended. [This review is based on a reading of the first seven chapters; it will be updated as the reading proceeds.]
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
A Glorious Romp through epistemology
By Katy Butler
How do we know what we know? and Why do we think we know what we think we know? If I were still young and beautiful I would throw myself at this man's feet. A glorious romp through philosophy an depistemology, masquerading as a book about finance. I'm sure many other reviews have noted how prescient this book was, coming out just before that horrendous Black Swan, the housing meltdown of 2008. A great book to read along with reading and watching "The Big Short." The guy is hilarious and sophisticated. It's one of the few books I've read in adult like that forced me to keep consulting a dictionary-- and dynamic and fascinating enough to make me return to the text after doing so. One of my best books of the last couple of years.
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